Moving World — The Year Ahead
We look back at 2016 to capture the year’s biggest stories and ask the question, what do the next 12 months have in store?
Lessons in machine learning
Artificial intelligence is no longer science fiction. It’s influencing more of our lives than ever — and the decisions we make in the next 15 years will shape our relationships with AI for the next century.
In 2016, the results of machine learning — the branch of AI that recursively teaches itself — could be seen everywhere. The combination of plummeting cost of entry and open publishing of research means the technology is more accessible than ever. In the past year we saw the benefits of machine learning trickle into consumer applications, enabling features like smarter recommendations, semantic tagging, and even Tesla’s beta ‘autopilot’ feature.
We are still probing where these advances in AI are useful. We know an AI driver is safer and cheaper than their fleshy equivalent. We know AI is effective at learning our habits and preferences, and matching us with potential purchases, TV shows or partners. And AI players are great at board games, even those like Go that rely on very ‘human’ traits such as ‘intuition’.
The forefront of AI research is now focused on emulating and testing those ill-defined ‘human’ qualities: empathy, creativity and improvisation. 2016 saw machines write a bizarre short film script, direct a commercial for breath mints, compose music, and even imitate a master Renaissance painter.
Reactions to these attempts at creativity have been mixed — when machines begin to echo our own abilities, we naturally get creeped out.
“This is an insult to life.” — Hayao Miyazaki, distinctly not impressed by the early work of an artificial animator.
Technology needn’t be an enemy to art. There’s a growing subset of creatives exploring that crossover, and Gene Kogan offers a technical primer for creative coders.
So, how do we design a world for an artificial brain? The first report from the Stanford-led ‘One Hundred Year Study On Artificial Intelligence’ emphasises that the decisions we make in the next 15 years will shape our relationships with AI for the next century.
We must ensure the AI of the future does not inherit our modern biases, including the cultural ‘-isms’ described in Kate Crawford’s “White Guy Problem”. As AI systems become more advanced, we should clearly mark their limitations and why problems may arise.
We don’t like being kept in the dark by algorithms, whether it’s understanding why this particular product was recommended to you, or accepting that you still need to keep your eyes on the road while ‘autopilot’ is switched on. And when things do go wrong — in the case of the tragic Tesla autopilot failure — it’s important for regulators and the public to know why. Now is the time we build trust in AI, or risk spreading mistrust and suspicion.
You better believe it’s not butter!
Foodtech is making strides into creating healthier futures, both for our bodies and our planet. As the industry begins to bear fruit, we’re getting a glimpse at the future of intelligent food cultivation and consumption.
2016 saw the growing food tech scene attract over $1 billion in investment, with sector advocates such as Kimbal Musk stating that food start-ups offer opportunities rising to ten times the size of the global software market.
This year, we met The Not Company, a business using machine learning to disrupt traditional production methods and create sustainable alternatives to diners’ favourite animal derived products. So far, the team have created alternatives to milk, mayonnaise, cheese and butter, using vegetable-based proteins. Its secret sauce is the machine learning program it has developed, affectionately dubbed Giuseppe. It pulls apart our favourite food products and figures out how they can be rebuilt, using vegetable and plant proteins alone. It has been pretty successful too, coming up with alternatives that even seasoned foodies approve.
NotCo isn’t alone in hacking mother nature. Earlier in 2016 the ‘clean meat’ movement began to gather pace. The lab-grown alternative to farmed meat that is hoping to replace animal products that have become harmful to the environment.
Impossible Foods has created a burger patty that replicates the smell, texture and taste of meat, while containing only plant based proteins. It states that by switching to the Impossible Burger we use 95% less land, 74% less water, and produce 87% less greenhouse gas emissions.
Intelligent resource use is driving a new wave of farming innovation, making small scale, localised cultivation more popular in urban areas. Square Roots are champions of the #realfood movement, and are investing in food production methods that generate yields equivalent to two acres of farmland within 320 sq/ft growing modules. The aim is to bring effective production methods closer to food entrepreneurs in cities, helping them to reduce food miles, and produce nourishing local produce.
Will we start seeing these alternatives popping up on supermarket shelves? Will our city centre tower blocks become adorned with grow houses? This time next year, we could all be reaching for NotCheese Impossible Burgers.
Turning up to work might not be as scary as we thought…
As our computer counterparts smarten up, we get a better picture of their future in the world of work.
Once hailed as the future of employment, the growth of the ‘gig economy’ has slowed considerably. A report from JPMorgan Chase found that only 4.3% of US adults had earned and income from a ‘gig’ platform.
The biggest players in the market are under fire; Uber is slashing the amount it pays its drivers in an attempt to remain competitive, and the ride-sharing app joins gig-economy bedmates Deliveroo and AirBnB in a regulatory quagmire that threatens to blow a hole through their business models.
Whilst the progression of AI is supposedly threatening our job security, we can all take solace in research from McKinsey Global Institute, which states that the proportion of jobs that could become fully automated with technology currently available is less than 5%.
Glassdoor’s chief economist Andrew Chamberlain predicts:
“The fastest growing jobs today are ones that require human creativity, flexibility, judgment, and ‘soft skills.’ That list includes health care professionals, data scientists, sales leaders, strategy consultants, and product managers. Those are exactly the kind of jobs least likely to function well in a gig economy platform.”
Now we’re talking!
Talk to your lamp. Whisper to your walls. Scream at your kettle. The push towards conversational interfaces means talking to inanimate objects will no longer make you seem like a psychopath.
In February 2016, the beloved Quartz launched its first mobile app and surprised its users by going against existing notions of news apps and adopting a conversational interface. It was a moment many of us realised the power of conversation. It’s natural, relaxed, and when well-done, entertaining. It’s an interface we’re becoming increasingly familiar with, and expect to interact with any brand in this way.
Every month, both WhatsApp and Facebook Messenger host one billion users on their platforms. So the surge of investment in this category is no surprise. Both Messenger and iMessage have launched extension platforms, kickstarting an eco-system where we can request an Uber, chat with a personal shopper, book a table reservation and even play Scrabble, all within a chat window. The pressure is now on for many more brands to dive in.
Personal assistants and voice search have led the way for conversational interfaces, and introduced many of us to the idea that our devices have personality. In 2016 Siri enables third-party integration, Google Assistant launched, while Amazon sold over 5 million Echo’s and became a leader in establishing a conversational eco-system.
In a New Scientist article, Daren Gill, Director of Product Management for Alexa says “Every day, hundreds of thousands of people say ‘good morning’ to Alexa.” Alexa users’ most popular interaction is ‘thank you,’ revealing a surprisingly intimate relationship between man and machine.
This growing category unearths new challenges for brands. Google is hiring creative writers and comedians to shape and differentiate the personality of its assistant. Product designer Anab Jain questions if applying female gender cues to virtual assistants risks perpetuating gender stereotypes and Mattel realises that Alexa may not be equipped to assist our children. Just as we learn to design a system that fits the full spectrum of devices (from a Watch to a TV) our next challenge is for those apps without a screen: How does it sound? What’s its personality? What punchline will it drop?
Any closer and you’ll get square eyes
After decades of imminence, consumer-grade virtual reality is finally here, and it joins the ranks of augmented and mixed reality technology tackling the loftiest of ambitions: to revolutionise how we see.
What’s your flavour of reality? Virtual, augmented or mixed? Would you prefer to strap your phone to your face, or invest in a supercomputer to run a headset? 2016 saw a gaggle of goggles reach the mass-market: Samsung’s GearVR and Google’s Daydream View hit the shelves, turning our mobiles into portals to a new world, while Oculus and HTC released their flagship products. The tech behind these headsets has finally reached adolescence, but comes with plenty of teething problems: hefty technical requirements, headaches, a dearth of experiences, and a demand for space that makes it unrealistic for anyone living in a London flat. These early problems may explain lukewarm sales over the last year.
VR experiences are so far focused on the individual. The strength of the medium is in its immersiveness, and through subtle psychological illusions, in the control it gives the user. Short films like Google Spotlight’s ‘Pearl’ prove that a non-linear VR narrative can still pack an emotional punch, whilst games such as ‘Audioshield’ transport players into a trance-like combination of exercise and synesthesia. When viewed in VR, ‘Tilt Brush’ suddenly becomes an intuitive and expressive 3D tool — worlds away from technical packages like Cinema 4D.
Mixed reality is a less introspective emerging technology with similarities to AR. Products such as Microsoft’s HoloLens and the iconic Magic Leap promise to integrate holograms into the wearer’s surroundings. Walls become cinemas and tables become Minecraft dioramas. Perhaps the most exaggerated (and dystopian) example of mixed reality can be found in Keiichi Matsuda’s ‘Hyper-Reality’, a provocative and kaleidoscopic design fiction imagining a future where the physical city is saturated in virtual media.
We prefer a more optimistic outlook: as mixed reality hardware becomes more accessible, key opportunities are arising in cultural, education and healthcare sectors. Overlaying digital objects into the real world promises to revolutionise our idea of a museum, whilst virtual worlds have proven to be extremely effective in treating mental health disorders.
The most exciting part of this technology is that it liberates us from the ubiquitous rectangular screen. As technology continues to improve (it is predicted to mature within 5 years) we are reminded that ‘virtual reality’ does not just describe a medium — it’s a destination.
Words: Jed Carter, John Faye, Steffan Cummins
Pictures: Minji Sung
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